To Predict or not to Predict?

There are things that should be ignored and there are things that should be addressed. This one is the latter.

I was quite amused when I read this in a website of a test prep company.

“Another important point to note is something we stress upon in every chat session – it is impossible for even the Prometric/IIMs to predict the number of attempts to get a X or a Y percentile. The end result will be a resultant of the difficulty level of the paper and on how the other test takers solved the paper during the slot. It is therefore strongly advised not to get swayed by the predictions that you may find online or may hear from friends.”

I am compelled to write this since there is a direct ‘accusation’ against the efforts that CL is doing, with a tone of condescension, if I can add that.

1. “it is impossible for even the Prometric/IIMs to predict the number of attempts to get a X or a Y percentile.”

Let us first analyse what Promteric says about CAT:

“Unlike less sophisticated test construction techniques that simply randomly assign test questions to each candidate, LOFT is a dynamic forms generation model that utilizes advanced computer algorithms and item characteristics to custom-build each exam. A randomly assembled exam can vary dramatically from one candidate to another, leading to serious concerns about fairness and validity. LOFT, on the other hand, carefully “balances” each candidate’s exam to ensure proper content coverage and overall difficulty, enabling reliable comparisons of performance from one candidate to another”.

(Source : https://www.prometric.com/en-us/news-and-resources/white-papers/Documents/LOFT.pdf)

Perhaps what this prep company failed to understand is this – when questions are created and difficulty level is assessed, the same is based on a prediction – not an astrological prediction but one built with algorithmic precision. So, to say that CAT is just a set of random question with no logic is a non-cogent argument.

2. “It is therefore strongly advised not to get swayed by the predictions that you may find online”

I am not suggesting that one should base one’s decision solely on these predictions. I am also not suggesting changing anything based on one time slot or one student’s experience.

That is no reason to stop predicting. There are enough statistical models and tools available today to make reasonable and highly probable predictions if you have enough data. Well, at CL, we do have considerable number of data points and some real ‘statistical minds’, who can make sense of these data using proven and time-tested models.

The fact is – that the same prep company has been predicting the score after every CAT. Just that they got lost to figure out how to analyse CAT when it became online with multiple time-slots and multiple tests within the same time-slot!

Here’s the bottom line:

CL is willing to stick its neck out and not be a ‘chicken’. We will make plausible predictions based on available statistical model for the benefit of student community. Now, it is for you to figure out how to best use the information.

We made the information available! We will continue to analyse, decipher and decode the CAT – it reflects in the quality of our Mocks, in the comprehensiveness of our course ware and the accuracy of our analysis.

If you have not used our True Percentile Predictor yet, try it now.

 

98 Comments

  1. sir, in an earlier post you said that 38 corrects would lead to 99+%ile . But even in mocks this never happened in cl mocks and real cat was easier. So what is the basis of this

    • Yatin, I expected real CAT to be easier than Mock CATs and hence gave a higher number of net correct attempts as compared to Mocks. With CAT QA being more easy this number should go up further.

  2. sir,
    one thing I have noticed during my mock tests is that I waste about 15 – 20 mins minimum on questions I end up not answering . this time , if saved , can lead to one or two solved RC/ LR . my question , sir, is how to save this time.
    moreover I have found I have a chronic weakness in answering the mood of the passage and inner massage of it (for an example if there is an adage in the options and if it more or less fits , should I go for it or should I choose the option more specific to the passage?? ).

    • Dear Arindam,

      While solving the paper, you should always try to pick out the easiest questions and answer those and should leave out the toughest questions. To do this, you will need to look at the stems of most of the questions, which will take some time. Hence, it is normal to spend around 20 to even 30 mins (out of the 170 mins) on questions that you ultimately choose not to attempt. Do not worry about this time period. An option that is specific to the passage is more likely to be the right answer. An adage may be too broad to be the answer. For such questions, you may work by trying to eliminate the options. Check which of the options do not fit the tone/subject matter of the passage and so work out which option is the least objectionable one. That option will be the right answer.

  3. Sir i am unable to understand how percentile and accuracy are interlinked while giving cat exam

    • Aashanaa, they are not. The net score is important, thus 16 attempts with 100% accuracy and 20 attempts with 3 incorrect answers (+3 for correct and -1 for incorrect answers) will both result in the same net score and hence the same percentile.

  4. Hello GP Sir,
    I have attempted 10 ques in QA/DI, with all of them correct, and 18 in VA/LR with 13-14 being correct. Sir, kindly help me in assessing my performance in CAT’13, by providing your estimation of my score. Being a CL student, I am unable to access CLPP.
    My Academic Profile is as follows:-
    10th : 87%
    12th : 91%
    Graduated in Economics(Hons) with 62% in July 2013.

    Sir, I have applied for IMI Delhi and Fore School till now. Kindly help me out with the Colleges I should be filling, according to your estimation of my score.
    Regards.

    • Anisha, The Percentile Predictor is for CL students first, the other are also allowed to use it.
      1. Login to your SIS and click on My Profile icon on top right.
      2. Go on to “SIS Linkage with Facebook” section and click on Link with Facebook.
      3. Enter you Facebook login credentials.
      Now you will be able to use the percentile predictor and all other features of the Exam Corner.

      • Sir,
        I tried doing the same many times, but still I am not able to connect to CLPP through my SIS account. I am able to separately access the CLPP through Facebook, but that is of no use, since its not connected to my SIS.
        Hence, I am unable to assess my CAT performance, due to which, filling up forms for colleges is also difficult. Sir, kindly help me, by giving your assessment of my above mentioned performance in CAT’13.

        • Anisha, please send a email with your enrollment details and the problem to me at gp@careerlauncher.com
          My estimate is that you are likely to be in the region of 85-90%ile in CAT and you can consider applying to the Category B+ and B institutes as mentioned in the blogpost Application Time!
          From the Category A institutes you can consider applying to XIMB HR, IRMA, UBS and MBE.

          • Ok, Thank you very much Sir for your help. This estimation of yours has shown me some direction, as to which all colleges I should apply.
            Thanks again.

  5. Sir,

    I know its late in the piece, but I need help now. I can’t use the CL calculator(Can’t even change the slot on it.). Haven’t given the best test series out there as well (Mindworkz) so I can’t input any scores. Here are my stats

    Slot: Oct 28,2013 (Morning) WRONG QUESTION SLOT!!!!
    QA : 14-15 out of 17 correct.
    VA : 24-25 out of 29 correct.
    Least gross score I make is 95 max is 125.
    %ile I should get? (This slot is very debatable due to the wrong question and VERY tough venn diagram DI)
    I have applied to FMS.
    Worst case scenario what should I apply to?

    • Deepanshu, please log on to the CL Exam Corner and login using your facebook id, enter your pofile detials, CAT details and attempt estimaes in the True Percentile Predictor.
      However my estimate is that you should be scoring around 99%ile in CAT and should be able to get calls from IIMs and FMS. So join PDP immediately to ensure that you are well prepared for the personality assessment stage.

      • Thank you very much sir, for your input. My question is where should I apply for the GD/PI classes or training and when do they start.(I am from Delhi, all institutes should be available here.).

        • Deeptanshu, I have been travelling and hence the delay. Apologise for the same.
          I move across centers and am usually a part of boot camps. Join the CL center that is most convenient to you.

  6. sir i attempted 17 question in each section . my estimate is that there wll be 12 correct que in each section can you please predict my percentile..

  7. Sir as per the application earlier my CAT Percentile was shown as 74 percentile. But after the new revised data it is showing 92 percentile at the same attempts.
    QADI: 13/15
    VALR: 15/20
    Please clarify this doubt. What approx percentile can I expect?

      • AB, net 25-26 correct should result in 90%ile in CAT’13. The raw score on the basis of +3, -1 will be in the range of 75-80 marks.

    • AB, Go by the revised estimates.
      The percentile predictor works on the basis of some statistical parameters which represent past CAT years trends and another set of indicators of the current CAT trends. Ever since the CAT exam window has concluded thousands of students have submitted fresh data to us. We have thus been able to get a better understanding of CAT 2013. At this point of time, we have a significantly large amount of data which was sufficient reason to revise our estimates. The current estimates are more accurate than the first estimate.

  8. sir, earlier the percentile predictor was showing a percentile of 85 at raw score of 82 but now it has inflated it upto 94,could you please tell is it correct?

    • Amit, The percentile predictor works on the basis of some statistical parameters which represent past CAT years trends and another set of indicators of the current CAT trends. Ever since the CAT exam window has concluded thousands of students have submitted fresh data to us. We have thus been able to get a better understanding of CAT 2013 . At this point of time, we have a significantly large amount of data which was sufficient reason to revise our estimates. The current estimates are more accurate than the first estimate. Your B school Advisory will also show a different set of schools.

  9. sir
    cl predicted 66% in cat predictor tdy it is showing 89% in true cat predictor…i just read ur previous comments for a similar percentile(66) in that u stated that even if normalization takes place u cannot score more than 75% but now the true predictor is showing 89% ?? is it reliable?

    • Rakesh, you are right normalisation is not a factor but with more data available we have updated our data and hence the revised projected CAT percentiles. This is reliable and am sure that this will tally when the CAT results are declared on 14th January.

  10. Hi GP sir. I have attempted 19 qns in QADI and 25-26 qns in VALR. I think QADI is accurate, but at max there might be 2 wrong ans. What percentile can I expect ?

    Regards,
    Mahi

    • Mahi, Please enter your attempt and estimated correct in the True Percentile Predictor at http://www.careerlauncher.com/cat2013 to get an idea of your CAT percentile. The B-school Advisory will also give you the list of institutes from where you can get, interview calls based on your category.
      However my estimate is that you will be above 95%ile in QADI, above 99%ile in VALR and aggregate. Calls from all IIMs and FMS are possible subject to a satisfactory profile score. Start PDP early so that you are well prepared for the personality assessment stage.

  11. sir, earlier the percentile predictor was showing a percentile of 85 at raw score of 82 but now it has inflated it upto 94,could you please throw some light on how genuine are these?

    • Even I have got a doubt on this application. Earlier it was showing only 16 %tile for me and GP sir also told that I am unlikely to be above 50 %tile. But now it is showing 62 %tile for me!!
      GP Sir, kindly throw some light on this. Can I apply to B-Schools based on this score?

      • Laxmi, The percentile predictor works on the basis of some statistical parameters which represent past CAT years trends and another set of indicators of the current CAT trends. Ever since the CAT exam window has concluded thousands of students have submitted fresh data to us. We have thus been able to get a better understanding of CAT 2013 . At this point of time, we have a significantly large amount of data which was sufficient reason to revise our estimates. The current estimates are more accurate than the first estimate. Your B school Advisor will also show a different set of schools.
        You can choose B schools based on this revised estimate but a general category candidate is unlikely to get into a decent B school based on this score. The best approach for you is to focus on SNAP and XAT.

    • sir,i have the same question.since the form filling involves thousands of rupees and cat percentile predictor is the only thing right now on which our form selection will be based ,reliability of percentile predictor is of high consideration.

      • Pooja, The percentile predictor works on the basis of some statistical parameters which represent past CAT years trends and another set of indicators of the current CAT trends. Ever since the CAT exam window has concluded thousands of students have submitted fresh data to us. We have thus been able to get a better understanding of CAT 2013 . At this point of time, we have a significantly large amount of data which was sufficient reason to revise our estimates. The current estimates are more accurate than the first estimate. Your B school Advisor will also show a different set of schools.
        You can apply to B schools based on your Mock based percentile and the attempts based (revised) percentile.

    • Amit, The percentile predictor works on the basis of some statistical parameters which represent past CAT years trends and another set of indicators of the current CAT trends. Ever since the CAT exam window has concluded thousands of students have submitted fresh data to us. We have thus been able to get a better understanding of CAT 2013 . At this point of time, we have a significantly large amount of data which was sufficient reason to revise our estimates. The current estimates are more accurate than the first estimate. Your B school Advisor will also show a different set of schools.

  12. Hi. Does the difficultness of the paper vary for people taking up the exam in the same slot? I took up the CAT test on November 10th morning slot. I found the test to be a little easy and made 19 attempts in section 1 whereas most people who attended the test along with me made an attempt of 10. How will this affect my percentile during normalization?

    • Mukhesh, there is nothing like a slot now. For the last couple of years Prometric has been giving different paper to every student so while students in the same slot have a large number of common questions about a third of the questions are different. But Prometric has a system that tries to give all students a paper of similar level of difficulty and hence I am inclined to think that you have done better than your friends in the same slot.

  13. Sir I gave my CAT on 7th november on true cat i got
    86.34 %ile in QA/DI
    97.07 %ile in VA/LR
    95.64 %ile overall
    I am from General Category
    i have
    class X 83.6 %
    class XII 89 %
    B.Tech 67%

    and work experience of 12 months

    which college should i apply for from which college i can hope for a call
    can i get a call from any IIM ?

    • Rawshan, please check the True Percentile Predictor, with more data available we have updated it. Please let me know the updated percentiles and I will advise accordingly.

      • sir according to the new revised true CAT %ile predictor
        my
        94.88 %ile in QA/DI
        98.09 %ile in VA/LR
        98.2 %ile overall.

        quite a confidence booster, these new scores 🙂

        • Rawshan, yes and this confidence should help you do well in IIFT and XAT also. Do start PDP classes immediately after IIFT.

          • and what about iim and other top college’s taking admission based on CAT, do i have any luck based on my academic profile ?
            and which private college’s should i try for ,

          • Rawshan, 67% in graduation rules out IIM A and less than 99.5%ile in CAT rules out IIM C, the others are however possible. MDI, NITIE, IIT-D XIM B are all possible for you. IIT Mumbai is difficult(cut off 99%ile) but you should apply.

  14. Sir,
    My QA/DI and VA/LR Attempts are 25-25 apiece. While one can be sure of one’s attempts in QA/DI (Given the difficulty level of all the DI sets (which was surprisingly low)) , an obvious 8 correct on 9 in LR, I’m in a bit of doldrums about the RC’s. I’m sure you have heard that the RC’s were not the easiest on the 5th of Nov. Having said all this, how can normalisation work to affect my fortunes? (QA/DI- 25A 23C – 67
    VA/LR – (erring on the side of caution) 25A 20C – 55)

    • themellifluousbitsian, with 23/25 in QADI and 20/25 in VALR you are likely to over 99%ile in aggregate and hence should start PDP immediately after IIFT so that you are well prepared for the personality assessment stage. Normalisation normally does not change scores significantly and you are unlikely to go below 98.5%ile. Obviously we are not worried about the upside.

  16. Sir,i gave my exam on 6th nov,1st slot. I am NC-OBC candidate;Average profile(fresher)..Heard that the slot was of moderate difficult (QA-DI-moderate , VA-LR-easy). I have attempted 16 QA questions with atleast 14 corrects and 21 questions from section 2 with atleast 17 corrects..what is the LEAST PERCENTILE that i can expect considering the difficulty of the paper??
    also,sir plz let me know of which colleges should i fill the form, apart from the newer iims..and what are my changes for converting nitie if i get a call with average profile.
    Regards
    Deep

    • Deep, Please enter your attempt and estimated correct in the True Percentile Predictor at CL Exam Corner to get a clear idea of your CAT percentile. The B-school Advisory will also give you the list of institutes from where you can get interview calls based on your category.
      My estimate is that you are likely to be in the 85-90%ile range.

  17. Sir,
    What that particular test-prep center said is not totally wrong either. I understand and appreciate your points but you need to also look into the matter that this year’s CAT is a notch tougher than that of last year, so using past year’s data to analyze this year’s results will not necessarily work. Besides, you have yourself mentioned in another thread that there are many students who don’t get IIM calls even if they were very happy after the exam and many who get calls even if they had predicted a lower percentile.

      • Absolutely true sir! It is the difference in opinions that actually create the beauty and diversity in this world. But no way should it mean that a dissenter on a certain subject is condescending.
        I am happy to know that CL has worked on and revised its database and also deepened its understanding of scaled scores. Being dynamic in this way is commendable and this could lead to a more accurate estimation.

  18. Sir,
    I have attempted 14 in QA with approx 12 correct and 16 in VA with approx 13-14 correct.True Cat %ile Predictor is showing 66 %ile..Isn’t there any chance for me to get a better %ile in the actual results ?
    Regards
    Vandana

    • Vandana, even if normalisation pushes up your percentile score it is unlikely to go beyond 75%ile and hence you should foget CAT and focus on the other exams.

  20. sir i have tried to link my SIS account with my facebook account. But even after taking my fb credentials nothing happened. I have tried it many times now. sir please help me as i need to use the predictor as well as see the nmat analysis. I have nmat on 11th of nov. Please reply soon sir.

  22. its saying, my beast percentile can be 92 and average 82, but i guess its hardly possible now, I tried to cover up as much as i can in the next section but quant/DI was a nightmare for me..thanks to geometry

  23. i gave my cat’13 on 30th of October and i found my Quant section was very tough, there was no ques from PPL, AMA,time-speed, time-distance,SI/CI and DI was too calculative..I was only able to solve 7in quant with 100%accuracy, and am expecting an overall score between 50-60. I want to ask can Normalization help me ? do I stand a chance in getting a good MBA colg ?

    • Mudit, Please enter your attempt and estimated correct in the True Percentile Predictor at http://www.careerlauncher.com/cat2013 to get a clear idea of your CAT percentile. The B-school Advisory will also give you the list of institutes from where you can get interview calls based on your category.
      However my estimate is that even with normalisation you are unlikely to get more than 75%ile in QADI and hence you should immediately shift your focus to other tests especially SNAP which has a simpler QADI section.

  24. Sir,
    I have given my cat on 5th November slot 2(3:15 pm). I have attempted 22 questions in QA&DI with 100% accuracy and in VA&LR section i have attempted 19 question with an expectation of 13 correct and 6 wrong.So, i am expecting the below given score:
    QA&DI : 66 marks (22 correct, 0 wrong)
    VA&LR : 33 marks (13 correct, 6 wrong)
    How much percentile can i expect sir?

    • Adig, Please enter your attempt and estimated correct in the True Percentile Predictor at http://www.careerlauncher.com/cat2013 to get a clear idea of your CAT percentile. The B-school Advisory will also give you the list of institutes from where you can get interview calls based on your category.
      My estimate is that due to low VALR your aggregates will be around 96%ile.

      • Sir,
        In CL percentile predictor its showing 95.53%ile overall. And in QA&DI : 99.53%ile.
        and in VA&LR : 59%ile.
        Sir, can you predict my sectional percentile in VA&LR section?. Because many colleges are having sectional percentile cutoff also.

        THANK YOU

        • Adig, QADI is definitely above 99.5%ile. VALR is a slight worry but I do not think that it will be 59%ile. It is likely to be around 80-85%ile. Hopefully VALR will have fewer errors.

  25. QA 16 attempt,13 correct,VA 17 attempt 12 correct…..I belong to nc obc..what percentile and consequently what college’s should I expect?? sir reply plz.

    • Shashi, Please enter your attempt and estimated correct in the True Percentile Predictor at http://www.careerlauncher.com/cat2013 to get a clear idea of your CAT percentile. The B-school Advisory will also give you the list of institutes from where you can get interview calls based on your category. Please check and update for my inputs.

  26. Hello GP Sir,
    I am a CL student. I wrote CAT on 31st Oct morning slot.
    My attempts were 16 + 27. I entered the data in the true percentile predictor as 13 correct out of 16 for Section 1 & 23 correct out of 27 in Section 2. The percentile shown was 97.58.. For my friend(non CL) it was 19 correct out of 21 for section 1 & 13 correct out of 19 in Section 2. His percentile showed as 85.67..
    As you can see his accuracy is slightly better. Then how come there is such a huge difference in our percentiles??
    One more doubt sir, will these percentiles change from time to time as more people enter their data??

    Thank you Sir

    • Vishal, percentiles are based on net scores and not on accuracy and students with the same net score get the same percentile. Accuracy does not impact the percentiles.
      In this cases you have 36 correct out of 43 attempts which leads to a score of 101 (on +3, -1) while your friend has a 32 correct out of 40 which leads to a score of 88. Since your friend has a lower score hence a lower percentile.
      While accuracy has no role in this but your accuracy is higher – 36/43 is almost 84% while your friend is at 80%.
      The percentiles will not change as more students enter their data since it is based on a formula derived using last years data.
      While 13/16 in QADI is a bit low you have a good chance of calls from IIMs and you should start preparing for the next stage.

  28. sir last year i attempted net 31(14+17)questions and i got around(168/450) marks..could you tell me what might be my raw score out of 180..?

  29. Hi sir,
    I have given my CAT on 24th Oct 2nd slot.The paper was really tough I could attempt only 14 Quant Questions and 20 Verbal Questions..the Quant section was full of difficult geometry questions.I expect 90% accuracy overall.I had given all CL Mocks and on basis of mock percentile predictor i was getting 96 expected percentile….the CL Percentile predictor on CAT performance is showing 85 percentile…..What should percentile should i expect….considering it was the toughest paper??

    • Pramit, QA is a bit ob the lower side but hopefully the normalisation process will take care of the degree of difficulty. Without taking normalisation into account 14 QADI + 20 VALR with 3-4 errors would be in the region of 85-90%ile. Unfortunately most of the good institutes need over 95%ile and hence my suggestion is to forget CAT and move on to the next paper that you are planning to take. IIFT, SNAP and XAT also lead to top notch institutes. Start by taking an old paper of the net test to get an idea of the its structure and peculiarities.

  30. Hello Sir,
    Today I took cat and updated my score in CL CAT percentile predictor. I’m bit surprised to see the result. As per my attempts & accuracy, I’m getting a raw score of 38. (QA – 8 out of 10 and VA-LR: 6 out of 8). I’ve score same kind of marks in IMS SimCats and CL also projected a score of 80 percentile with those marks. But unfortunately True CAT Percentile Predictor estimated 16.73 (max 19.02) percentile for me! Can you please explain?
    Thanks in advance.
    Laxmi

    • Laxmi, I will not be able to comment on the IMS SimCats but with a net score of 38 you are unlikely to be above 50%ile.

      • Hello GP Sir,
        Thank you for your reply. Sir can you please let me know how much raw score is required to score atleast 65 percentile? Actually it was my first attempt and I got very less time to prepare for CAT.
        Regards,
        Laxmi

  31. GP sir,

    I have been trying since last month to score well in unproctored mock cats but I generally end up in the percentile range of 65-70 . Some times verbal touches 77-78 while quants is low and sometimes the vice versa. I am pretty sure I lack practice because when I analyse the questions post test I am able to do 22-25 of them in quants and so is the case with Verbal too(LR). My D Day is on 5th Nov and I am not very confident that I will pull of a 98-99 %ile score this year . Below is my profile.
    Work Ex – 3.2 yrs till now in software industry (Banking and financial services sector)
    10th – 78.8% CBSE
    12th – 70 % CBSE
    B.E – 80.22 %
    Category – General
    By the time I get admitted to a B School (if any)my work ex will be more than 3.5 yrs.
    My only target is older IIM’s , XLRI, MDI, FMS and SP JAIN. If I am not able to make it to the above mentioned will it be advisable to give a try next year??
    My prime concern is Work Ex which will be 4.5 yrs next year . So is it advisable to do a full tine MBA from the above mentioned with such high Experience ? Also will the above B schools consider my candidature with such Work ex.?

    Additionally going to ISB will be a good idea ? But then its a different GMAT track and even then Experience will be concern?
    I am troubled by these thoughts from past few days and I thought of addressing these in the forum . Kindly help/guide me on the above.
    Thanks & Regards,
    Amit

    • Amit, mock CATs are not CAT since beyond performance evaluation there is nothing at stake in a Mock. Many students perform much better in CAT than in Mocks so continue with your preparation and put your best foot forward on the D day. While some of the IIMs are ruled out due to less than 80% in X and XII but with over 3 years experience you can get a call from IIMB and some other IIMs. Fortunately outside the IIMs most of the MBA institutes do not give a very high weightage to school/college marks and hence XLRI, FMS, MDI and SPJain are all possible. However you will need over 95%ile for XLRI & MDI and around 99%ile for FMS. SP Jain is a must apply for you due to your work experience.

      To my mind this should be your last attempt at CAT, if you are unsuccessful go for a 1 year MBA from ISB or from top institute outside India. Ideally you should take GMAT in the next couple of months and apply to ISB this year itself.

  32. gp sir,
    my academic profile is:
    10th: 97%
    12th: 93%
    graduation: 90%
    non engineering boy
    no work ex

    NC-OBC

    What percentile in cat 2013 will get me calls from IIM A,B &C & FMS?
    What is the minimum no of attempts in qa and va sections to get me this percentile? I am a little weak in qa. What minimum attempts in qa will allow me to get call from iim A?

    • Dhruv, with excellent academic track record and as a NC OBC candidate calls from all institutes is possible at an aggregate of over 93%ile. IIMC usually has the highest cutoff among the IIMs and FMS as it has very low weightage for profile. For IIMC and FMS you should target 95%ile and for all other IIMs even 90%ile is good enough. Your target in each section should be 85%ile which can be obtained with 14-15 net correct attempts. Please refer to the videos at http://www.careerlauncher.com/cat2013/ for more guidance on attempts based on your category.

  33. Sir,
    I have heard that due to normalization, wrong questions are heavily penalized. Is it true?
    If I am stuck between 2 choices in a question should I mark either of them or leave the question?

    • Pranshu, there is no data to support this belief. If you are stuck between 2 choices you should mark an answer only if you are comfortable with it and not if you will worry about it. This is a personal choice based on your risk appetite.

  34. Sir,
    *Hats off*
    Awesome reply. This is what I call survival of the fittest. The only reason why CL has its way much ahead of all these other ‘test prep’ companies. With this post I announce myself as the greatest fan of GP in the country(Yes,I’m allowed to exaggerate:P)

    Now my problem.
    I’ll tell you stories of couple of my friends who took CAT last year.
    1.Person A: Attempts very low[7 in Section1 and 11 in Section2]
    A managed to get an overall percentile of 80
    2.Person B: Attempts[14 in Section1 and 16 in Section2]
    B got a percentile of 76

    Question 1 :How far is the accuracy level important in CAT? Is it advised to attempt only questions which we are 100% sure about or can we go with a question which we are sure by about 80%?

    Question 2: As you said a decent attempt would be 20 in Section1 and 22 in Section2. Is it a confirmed fact that a person with 16+16 attempts wont manage a 99+?

    Please enlighten us with the weight-age of accuracy level and how it affects our overall percentile.

    Thanks in advance(Big fan of GP :D)

    • Abin, the two cases that you have mentioned are interesting. Most probably Person B had a large number of errors and Person A had almost all correct and hence the scores. It would be interesting to check their sectional percentiles also.

      Q1. Accuracy is not considered in CAT and students with the same net score will get the same percentile. In your strong areas you should go for marking an answer if you are 80% sure but in your weak area mark an answer only if you are 100% sure of the answer.

      Q2. A confirmed answer to this can be given only after CAT comes out with the results but I am reasonably sure, based on data, that 16+16 will not get a 99%ile. To get this score one would need at 37-38 net correct answers.

      Thanks for your kind words.
      All the best

  35. GP,
    Can you tell me how much weight-age might be given to ACCURACY?
    If my accuracy is less but I get more score as compared to other guy, will he be given a percentile more than me? If yes, then how much is the range of that score difference?

    • Arpit, accuracy level does not play a role in the percentile calculation. Two students with different accuracy and same raw score wil get the same percentile.

  36. Good Morning Sir,

    Is it true that exam set that comes in last days of CAT is comparatively tough then one coming in earlier days.
    I know nothing can be done now and i should focus on my preparation but i just want to save myself from any surprises.

    Also Thanks a lot for all the help you are providing us through this blog and SQC.

  37. sir,I am a CL kolkata student.sir my proctored mock percentile ranges between 70 to 80..my exam on 7th november..ncobc profile and mbbs background..is it possible to score more than 96 still??

  38. Thats like a person who I personally admire so much as a teacher and a mentor with enormous dedication to help the students. Sir , I am a CL student and have also had the materials & tests of this other Test Prep Company in the past, and I cant agree with you more on “it reflects in the quality of our Mocks, in the comprehensiveness of our course ware “– i have personally felt these two points stated by you. Your analysis worked perfectly as far as my last year percentiles are concerned.

    Another thing , I personally loved the spirit in which you have answered . If you may allow me to say — like a LION :).

    Regards,
    Rahul

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